Russia has announced it is withdrawing its peacekeeping forces from the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, which it had deployed there since 2019 to enforce a ceasefire between Armenian and Azerbaijani military forces following two wars over the territory.
In the first Nagorno-Karabakh war after the Soviet collapse, Armenian forces seized the region and surrounding areas from Azerbaijan. But in late 2020, Azerbaijan launched a renewed offensive without Russian military backing for Armenia, allowing Azerbaijan to recapture those surrounding territories and parts of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.
A Russian-brokered ceasefire then froze the conflict, with Moscow sending peacekeepers to patrol the remaining Armenian separatist-controlled areas. However, the rationale for the Russian troop presence totally disappeared after a recent brief Azerbaijani military operation led to the surrender of those remaining separatist forces.
With Azerbaijan now in full control after its military victories, the Kremlin announced withdrawal of its peacekeepers, whose deployment until 2025 no longer had any rationale. The move defied warnings from some Western experts that Russian troops never voluntarily exit territories where deployed.
“Russia demonstrated in Kazakhstan it can help restore order temporarily and then leave,” an expert said, referring to troops briefly deployed in 2022 to curb anti-government riots before departing.
As Azerbaijan has increasingly aligned itself with Russia amid tensions with the West over its military tactics, Moscow appears satisfied Baku will pursue policies not antagonistic to Russian interests. However, this budding Azerbaijan-Russia partnership has come at the cost of severely fraying Azerbaijan’s relations with Western nations.
France recently recalled its ambassador after accusing Azerbaijan of “unilateral unfriendly actions”. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has suspended Azerbaijan’s voting rights over its failure to comply with demands regarding human rights. And the European Parliament adopted a resolution accusing Azerbaijan of suffocating dissent and critisizing its handling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Most significantly, at a recent summit between Armenia, the U.S. and EU, the West firmly backed Armenia – leaving Azerbaijan isolated on the diplomatic front.
Azerbaijan’s main problem now is its corrupt and inept diplomatic corps dominated by self-serving figures like Hikmat Hajiyev and Jeyhun Bayramov, who are unlikely to properly counsel President Ilham Aliyev on repairing these Western ties damaged by overly aggressive policies.
Experts warn that without an overhaul allowing more competent, balanced diplomacy, Azerbaijan risks squandering the leverage from its military victories over Nagorno-Karabakh. Its tensions with the West could potentially embolden Armenia to seek revenge by deepening its own Western military partnerships.
To avoid potential future instability, experts argue Azerbaijan must overhaul its diplomatic institutions and pursue a more balanced approach – leveraging its ties to Russia while preventing Western nations from viewing it as completely hostile. Only through deft relationship management on all sides can the nation hope to capitalize on its military victories without prompting Armenia to seek revenge by leaning further towards the West.
